28.06.2010

By Timothy Nsubuga

Debate over President Museveni’s possible retirement from the presidency of Uganda, and perhaps even active politics all together, seems to be raging again.  It’s a subject that somehow, never wants to be left out in cold when political debates are raging in the run up to most recent elections.  This time round, the trigger came on Thursday June 24^th when the Daily Monitor, a Ugandan English daily newspaper, reported that parliament had “approved the retirement benefits for the President, Vice President and Prime Minister, passing a new law that will see past, present and future office bearers smiling all the way to the bank” [see: MPs okay presidential retirement perks, Daily Monitor 24^th June].  

The new law, according to the report, details the salaries and allowances of the named government officials and also includes a generous package for their surviving spouses and children in the event of death while in office or death in retirement.  In particular, the three top officials [President, Vice President, and Prime Minister] will get a fully furnished house; chauffer driven cars; health insurance policy and security guards when they finally hang up their political boots.  There will also be an education allowance to cover fees for four biological children for the President and Vice President from pre-primary to undergraduate level. 

All this and more, will be on top of whatever wealth they will have privately acquired during their active private and public lives.  The benefits, however, are only meant to benefit political leaders who assumed office after the promulgation of Uganda’s 1995 Constitution.  That means, only President Museveni, Vice President Gilbert Bukenya, former VP Dr. Specioza Kazibwe, Prime Minister Prof. Apolo Nsibambi, and former PM Kintu Musoke will benefit from the new law.

So of what political significance, if at all, is this new development?  Could it suggest that retirement has finally crossed Museveni’s mind?  Uganda Correspondent put that question to a UK based former Minister in the Obote II who has now turned into a political commentator who seems to have an opinion on any and everything.  In his view, the mere suggestion that Museveni may be thinking of retiring “…is wishful opposition thinking.  That is where they [opposition] go wrong.  They seem to think they can merely wish Museveni away without doing the hard work”; he says.

On the other hand, I do recall [and I may be totally wrong] that Charles Onyango Obbo, one of Uganda’s top newspaper columnists, once looked into Uganda’s political crystal ball and came up with two indicators that in his view may suggest that Museveni is about to retire from active politics.  First, he said, that when Museveni finally starts talking about his retirement benefits, then we should all know that the thought of retiring from the presidency of Uganda will have crossed his mind.

The second indicator, according to Obbo, would be when Museveni finally elevates his beloved son Lt. Col. Muhoozi Keinerugaba into a powerful position in government where he would be one of the top, if not only contender to take over the presidency of Uganda when his father [Museveni] finally retires.  That was several months, perhaps even several years ago.  Today, the presidential retirement benefits law is in place and Museveni’s son Lt. Col. Muhoozi commands the most well equipped and arguably most powerful Brigade in the UPDF; Uganda’s national army. 

So who is right?  Obbo or this Obote II Minister who dismisses such speculation as “…wishful opposition thinking”.  Opinion seems to be divided at 50/50 across the board.  There are those like FDC President Dr. Kizza Besigye who simply say Museveni can never be trusted again after he lied to Ugandans in 2001 that the 2001-2006 term of office would be his very last.  Other sources within Museveni’s own party on the other hand, maintain that “Museveni is smart enough.  He is a great reader of public opinion.  He will know when the public are fed up of him and he will retire”.  That time, some think, may not be too far away since his “political Godfathers” [the donors] seem to be showing him the “exit” sign in coded diplomatic language and actions.

The truth of the matter, however, is that it is only Museveni himself who knows for sure when he intends to hang up his boots.  Whether or not Ugandans will allow him the luxury to stick to his retirement plan is a matter that is seriously debatable.  But he is keeping his plans close to his chest nonetheless.  And perhaps for good reason too!  Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair found out the hard way that it can be very risky business for a political leader to declare his intention to retire.  Because, as soon as Blair made that declaration, and gave a timeline for it, some dusty Scottish political swords came out immediately and he was literally hounded out of power before his intended time.

editor@ugandacorrespondent.com