Kampala bombs “good for Museveni”; says analyst
By Justin Tibenda – 19th-25th July 2010
7/11 bomb scene
The July 11th bombs that ripped through the uneasy tranquillity of Kampala could, “in a strange way”, have been the best thing to have happened to President Museveni in nearly two years; says a Makerere University Political and Security Analyst.
Located a few kilometres from the shores of the great Lake Victoria, Uganda’s capital city Kampala has been the epicentre of many of Uganda’s greatest political struggles since the tiny East African country won its independence from Britain in 1962.
This analyst, who requested to remain anonymous because of the sensitivities involved in this case, said: “…come on, we all know that Museveni has not been having the best of times from the international community over the electoral reforms demanded by the IPC. Hillary [Clinton, US Secretary of State; Ed] wrote a very bleak assessment of Museveni’s democratic credentials to the US Congress recently. Don’t you think these bombs are a great opportunity for Museveni to win back the West’s sympathy?”
According to this analyst, “…Museveni is a master at that game”. To prove his point, he said something that I thought, even with a few glasses of Speke Hotel red wine in my head, was a very provocative and perhaps even instructive: “…I wouldn’t be surprised if it eventually emerges that the government of Uganda knew about Al Shabaab’s plans to attack Uganda in advance but decided for strategic reasons not to foil it”; he said.
According to this 40-something Ugandan analyst with a neatly trimmed beard, “…the fact that Al Shabaab actually claimed responsibility for the Kampala bombs played right into the hands of Museveni’s no-nonsense political strategists because they could then play the victim game to Obama and other world leaders who seem to be trapped in George Bush’s war on terror”.
The September 11th attacks in the United States, he says, “…touched on raw American emotions that any US President would find almost impossible to go against; especially if he has his eyes set on the next election like Obama”. Indeed, in his reaction to the Kampala bombs, US President Barack Obama condemned the attacks and said the US would be willing to offer assistance if Uganda asks for it. Museveni’s sympathy game, according this analysts theory, would have paid immediate dividend.
This analyst is convinced that Museveni played exactly the same game that he is playing now with Obama against President George Bush Jnr and won by simply “…offering to send Ugandan soldiers to Somalia to fight an American war that had nothing to do with Uganda’s strategic national interests. If Uganda hadn’t gone to Somalia, Al Shabaab wouldn’t have attacked us. So no one should tell us that these latest attacks justify Uganda’s earlier involvement in Somalia; because they don’t”.
As the evening of Friday 16th July 2010 wore on, this political and security analyst became even more confident about the credibility of his analysis. “…You were here with us when these bombs went off. Does it surprise you that Mbabazi [Uganda’s Security Minister; Ed] quickly jumped into the pool of flowing innocent blood and demanded that our MPs should quickly pass the Phone Tapping Bill?” he asked.
“From now on, I doubt very much if Hillary [Clinton; ED] will again write a scathing report about Uganda to the US Congress. Al Shabaab may have unwittingly closed the debate about the need for a free and fair election in 2011. Just watch this space”; he confidently added.
Uganda Correspondent put this analyst’s views and theories to a top NRM government ideologue. Unsurprisingly, he quickly dismissed them as “…wild views from an opposition activist with a rich imagination. What do you expect?”; he asked. You make up your own minds!
