Is Otunnu fighting NRM’s and DP-Mao’s war?
By Abbey K. Semuwemba
6th Sept 2010
The author
One of Uganda’s oldest and nastiest parties, UPC, has decided to quit the Inter Party Coalition [IPC] simply because they could not accommodate or accept the views of the majority in the coalition.
Coalitions and diplomacy are nice, especially when everyone agrees to do the same thing, at the same time, and in the same way. For instance, the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shia parties, triumphed in the first proper elections in post Sadam Iraq. This was hardly surprising since the Shia make up 60 per cent of the Iraqi population.
Why coalitions fail
The decision by UPC and DP to snub the IPC shows that up to now the opposition in Uganda don’t know what they are up against. They simply don’t understand the nature and magnitude of the campaign needed to gradually take NRM out of power.
The differences between political parties in Uganda are as small as they were at the time of their formation. But egos and selfishness have stopped them from cooperating with FDC to have a serious impact on the 2011 elections.
With Mao and Otunnu now attacking Besigye more than president Museveni, there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell of a future alliance happening. This is especially the case because we don’t have a strong multiparty system or history of credible and fair elections in the country.
Yes, it’s true that some coalitions are formed prior to elections and others formed after elections. But in Uganda’s case, the parties involved are too weak to even claim to be under serious multi-partysm. Both DP and UPC have got internal factions hanging over their heads. The argument to form a coalition after the elections in a banana republic like Uganda does not make sense. I think early coalitions are more efficient in developing countries than after elections.
Secondly, most of the coalitions in developing countries are not on the basis of strength. Some parties come to the table bringing nothing. I guess this is what happened with UPC when it joined the IPC. They contributed very little to the coalition but surprisingly started complaining of FDC’s dominance. FDC put more effort into the coalition than all their partners.
Equally, when the IPC sits on the table with its donor counterparts, it comes with ideas but not money. So donors finance their activities. In other words, they’re the ones paying the piper and they call the tunes.
DP, NRM happy with UPC’s pull-out
NRM and DP-Mao are happy that UPC has pulled out of the IPC. But let’s consider the following: there was a Christian prophet called Daniel who made a prediction about 2500 years ago. Daniel said there would be a state called Israel. An Israeli state was just a dream for many people then. But it came into reality on May 15, 1948. Daniel predicated that Israel would be at war with surrounding states; and he foretold the rise, fall, and revival of the old Roman Empire.
The point is that UPC’s pull out from the IPC was something that was easy for those who were against the IPC coalition. Their predications were based on the fact that they wanted the IPC to fail. Those of us who wanted and still want the IPC to work will continue promoting unity among different political forces even if the current coalition does not achieve much in the 2011 elections.
Some NRM and DP supporters read the situation when Otunnu failed to turn up for nominations at Kololo and they made legless announcements that IPC was dead. If membership was defined by the political weight of the party, then FDC remains the “king” of the IPC. So if the “king”’ had thrown in the towel, then it would be justifiable to announce IPC’s death.
Those who have remained in the IPC need to be organized and also understand that they are going to run the most expensive campaign ever in Uganda’s history. Ugandans should reject the narrow vision of DP and UPC who have built walls around themselves for the sake of promoting their self interests.
For now, let’s rally behind the four gentlemen and their parties [FDC’s Besigye, Jeema’s Kyanjo, SDP’s Mabike, and CP’s Kigongo] who have put their personal differences aside for the sake of restoring democracy in the country. It’s my prayer that other pressure groups like Suubi and the IPC’s women organisations keep working together despite the official withdrawal of UPC from the alliance.
Mr. Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba is a Ugandan living in the United Kingdom
