By George Murumba

18^th Oct 2010

Al-Shabaab militants roaming Mogadishu streets

Uganda’s efforts to keep peace and guard the Transitional Federal Government [TFG] in Somalia at a high cost to both Ugandan lives and taxpayers will amount to naught, a Somalia analyst has said.

In an article published in Uganda Correspondent today, Haji Abdikarim Bur, who describes himself as a political analyst and WardheerNews contributor, said “…the strength of the movement [meaning Al Shabaab] is attributed to its lofty religious ideology which transcends the zero sum game of traditional clan competition which epitomizes the failure of Somalia’s middle class”.He added that “…the fallout of the poorly devised intervention of the US through its clientele states has translated into a healthy dividend in favour of the Al Shabaab movement.  The AMISOM contingent is the latest”.

Uganda and Burundi are the only countries in east and central Africa region with the most troops serving under AMISOM in war torn Somalia.  South Africa made it clear that it was not prepared to send any troops to Somalia.

The role of the AMISOM troops has thus far been confined to peacekeeping operations in the Somali capital Mogadishu.  Its other role is to guard the leaders of the TFG.  Last week, Uganda Correspondent reported that Uganda’s UPDF and their AMISOM colleagues had gained ground in the fight against Al Shabaab.

Haji Abdikarim Bur however doesn’t believe that Uganda’s efforts in Somalia will ever amount to anything to write home about.  He said, “…if you closely look at the Al Shabaab movement, you can observe a pattern.  Whenever its opponents anticipate disintegration, Al Shabaab surprises them by going from strength to strength”.

Haji Abdikarim Bur says he wonders “…how 20,000 under equipped Ugandans can legitimize an illegal institution; an institution that is hated for what it stands for and has only lived in the Barracks of the occupation forces a whole year since they were airlifted into the presidential palace”.

He adds that as a movement, Al Shabaab is oversubscribed by the disenchanted youth who grew up during the civil war and as such have no connection whatsoever to the old establishments of Sheikh Omer Faruq who schooled them in the Wahabi teaching or the political class of yester years.

Haji Abdikarim further argues that despite their unique interpretation of the Quran, Al Shabab and Hisbi at this point in time stand alone for the resurrection of the Somali nation and are struggling to contain Ethiopia’s ambition through the TFG to turn the country in to a colony or to keep it in a perpetual state of civil war.

This, he says, has left the movement with no option but to stick together because the alternative would be humiliation, harassment and certain death for all Al Shabaab members at the hands of the CIA.

Read Haji Abdikarim’s full analysis titled “Uganda can’t legitimise an illegal govt in Somalia” in our “Opinions” section.  END.  If it’s Monday, it’s Uganda Correspondent.  Never miss out again!