By Haji Abdikarim Bur

18^th Oct 2010

Al Shabaab Al Mujahidin evolved from the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in 2006 to become the strongest and most disciplined movement in Somalia.  It literally controls the South and Central Somalia and also has presence as far as Puntland and Somaliland – no faction or movement ever got to such prominence in the two chaotic decades after the fall of Mr. Barre’s government.

Al Shabaab has so far dwarfed the efforts of local warlords camouflaged by Ethiopia as the transitional federal government (TFG) and the international community’s negative propaganda and military might.

The strength of the movement is attributed to its lofty religious ideology which transcends the zero sum game of traditional clan competition which epitomizes the failure of Somalia’s middle class.  The fallout of the poorly devised intervention of the US through its clientele states has translated into a healthy dividend in favour of the movement.  The AMISOM contingent is the latest.

Al Shabaab is a movement that is oversubscribed by the disenchanted youth who grew up during the civil war and as such has no connection whatsoever to the old establishments of Sheikh Omer Faruq who schooled them in the Wahabi teaching or the political class of yester years.

The clergy and the politicians must realize that they can’t lead the kids they let down – Amir Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr was born three days after I sat for my GCSE examination in Shabelle Mennonite mission school.  I can hardly relate to the Al Shabaab people who grew up in the very harsh times when the only gift from the US was helicopter gunships and mass bombardments as opposed to the Peace Corps and educational materials that we used to associate with Americans during our formative years.

Al Shabab Al Mujahdin went through periods of power struggle and confusion in its short life but managed to come out with little scratches. The most well-defined internal problem was the Baidabo debacle in which the top leaders couldn’t agree on how best to deal with the TFG minsters that were holed in Baidabo – the home town of Shiek Muktar Rabow.

Sheikh Mukhtar Rabow took a more unconventional approach than the take no hostage act Amir Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr and most of Al Shabaab leadership were familiar to execute without fail.  Sheikh Rabow’s offer of safe passage to the remnants from the TFG saved the city from destruction and won him the hearts of both the locals and the multitudes that were watching the issue from afar.

The Baidabo dispute was thought to be the end of Al Shabaab – just like the alleged current dispute between the two top leaders.  The present dispute is over short term strategy and policies, which is common in every party.

The movement has no option but to stick together because the alternative is humiliation, harassment and certain death for all Al Shabaab members at the hands of the CIA.

Despite the tactical differences in the leadership, they concur on the common strategic goal of establishing a Wahabi Islamic state with a black flag and the Quran as its constitution.  The role of the international Jihadists in the movement that the Western media has picked is a fake field that has no basis within the sphere of Al Shabaab.

The most pressing issue is the prevention of the dismemberment of Somalia in the hands of Christian countries under the leadership of the US.  The feud between the two top leaders has the potential to reshape the movement into a more logical, flexible, and stately one as opposed to the death song its opponents Ethiopia are singing.

The movement has its own conflict resolution mechanism which might seem to outsiders as archaic.  But rest assured it works for Al Shabaab.  The TFG and their fighters have a monopoly on in fights and meaningless reshuffles.

If you closely look at the Al Shabaab movement, you can observe a pattern.  Whenever its opponents anticipate disintegration, Al Shabaab surprises them by going from strength to strength.

Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur, Al Shabaab’s second-in-command, has rebuffed reports that suggest that there is a leadership dispute   between himself and Amir Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr.  He termed the reports baseless and groundless, accusing the Transitional Federal Government of disseminating it.

This rumour surfaced at a time the movement is knocking at the gates of the presidential palace, the time the TFG is at its lowest in morale, the time Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia is contemplating a rescue mission for Amisom, and a time their goal is within reach.

Despite their unique interpretation of the Quran, Al Shabab and Hisbi at this point in time stand alone for the resurrection of the Somali nation and are struggling to contain Ethiopia’s ambition through the TFG to turn the country in to a colony of its own or to keep it in perpetual state of civil war.

As long as the current status quo of imposing solutions that are detrimental to the existence of the nation remain the norm, there will always be resistance of some sort that will grow in complexity proportionate to the pressure the blind international community exerts.

Foreign military intervention by the mightiest army in the world failed to change the tide in Afghanistan.  I wonder how 20,000 under equipped Ugandans can legitimize an illegal institution; an institution that is hated for what it stands for and lives only in the Barracks of the occupation forces a whole year since they were airlifted into the presidential palace.

The masses are fed up with the lack of consequential input from the side of the Somali elite.  Repeating like parrots whatever the western media broadcasts is a disservice to both the nation and to the international community.  END.  If it’s Monday, it’s Uganda Correspondent.  Never miss out again!

abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com

Mr. Abdikarim Buh is a political analyst and WardheerNews contributor