Museveni has capacity to rig and ‘win’ against Obama
By Sam A. Akaki
17th January 2011
What is the hullabaloo about the ill-conceived Afrobarometer and Synovate opinion polls which suggested that Museveni will win with 66% against his nearest opponent Dr Kizza besigye who is expected to get a miserable 12%?
The polls were a disgraceful diversion and disservice to Uganda’s democratization process. Instead of asking respondents who is likely to win the presidential election, Afrobarometer and Synovate should have asked the most wanting question of whether the present constitutional, legal and administrative environment is conducive for free, fair and peaceful elections in February 2011.
Let us hit the rewind button to the reports on the 2006 election for a moment. Collectively, these reports were not only categorical and instructive, but their main observations are as valid today as they were five years ago.
For example, the Commonwealth Observer Team report declared that from “the entire electoral process” (my emphasis), “…it is clear that the environment in which the elections were held had several negative features which meant that the candidates were not competing on a level playing field: the failure to ensure a clear distinction between the ruling party and the State; the use of public resources to provide an advantage to the ruling political party; the lack of balance in media coverage; the creation of a climate of apprehension amongst the public and opposition party supporters as a result of the use of the security forces; and the alleged use of financial and material inducements”. http://www.thecommonwealth.org/document/190591/191180/176283/177357/149333/cogugandadepstate.htm Let us examine these observations one by one.
Failure to separate the ruling NRM party from the State
The Movement Act 1997 which legally fused the old Movement [and its offspring the NRM-O party] with all state institutions is still in the statute book. To bring home the reality of the merger between the ruling NRM party and the State, in October 2010, the Daily Monitor reported that “…NRM party executives were by last night locked behind closed doors at State House Entebbe thrashing out details of the party’s 160-page manifesto”.
Where in the democratic world would you find ruling party executives treating State House like an annex of its party headquarters? You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that these NRM executives were also wining and dining ‘on the house’ as millions of “unlucky” Ugandans slept hungry. Many others were being killed by jiggers in Busoga!
Enter the Kenyan Racketeers
It could also have been in the same State House that Kenyan Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Prime Minister Raila Odinga recently launched their support for candidate Museveni. The two Kenyan leaders must have been aware, as everybody else, that it is Museveni and Museveni alone who allocates national business contracts to local, regional and international business racketeers posing as businessmen.
NRM’s use of State resources for partisan purposes
Two weeks ago, the Movement-dominated parliament forced through a supplementary budget of Shs600 billion with indecent haste to facilitate emergency State House operations! What was so urgent that the government could not wait for the next parliament, only 40 days away, to properly debate and decide on such a huge supplementary budget? Part of the answer to that question may in fact be found in the recent allegation that Museveni’s son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo had offered Sh1.5 billion to FDC’s Trade and Industry Secretary and Mayor of Hoima Mr Francis Atugonza to cross over to the Movement.
The denial of access to media coverage
On 12th December 2010, the Daily Monitor reported that “…Nine radio stations have declined to air campaign advertising material designed by the Inter-Party Cooperation to drum up support for their presidential candidate, Dr Kizza Besigye”. These radio stations in question included the Super FM in Kampala, Mighty Fire FM in Kitgum, Kiboga FM, Voice of Teso, Voice of Busoga, Rukungiri FM, Liberty FM in Masindi, Kinkizi FM in Kanungu, and Muhabura FM in Kisoro.
Most of these radio stations are owned by NRM-leaning politicians like NRM Secretary General and Security Minister Amama Mbabazi, NRM Vice Chairman for Eastern Uganda Capt. Mike Mukula, former Health Minister Maj. Gen. Muhwezi, and NRM Kampala Mayoral candidate Peter Ssematimba.
Creation of a climate of apprehension amongst opposition supporters
Two weeks ago, opposition Member of Parliament Hussein Kyanjo tabled a document in Parliament which he claimed was evidence of mass deployment of soldiers for purposes of voting for NRM candidates in the February 18 polls. Curiously, the government squashed the Motion and there has been no debate.
On 8th August 2010, the Daily Monitor had also reported that “…more than 40 serving officers have printed campaign posters to take part in the on-going primaries for the ruling National Resistance Movement party”. And on 10th November 2010, the Movement dominated parliament had voted to retain the army’s 10 army representatives in the House despite the recommendations of the Commonwealth and the European Union.
The use of financial and material inducements
Under a screaming headline “Museveni gives sh714 million in cash donations”, the Daily Monitor reported on 7th January that, “…President Museveni gave out Shs5 billion in cash and pledges between July and October last year…The sum includes Shs741 million that Museveni handed out in cash while on an anti-poverty tour across the country and Shs4.3 billion in pledges but does not include pledges of livestock, motor vehicles, land and farm implements, among others”. Donations of so much money can only have one purpose – to buy votes.
The inevitable conclusions
From these incontrovertible pieces of evidence, it is clear that Dr Kizza Besigye and the other six opposition presidential candidates are not contesting against the ruling party. They are contesting against the State; complete with an elaborate network of publicly-funded State institutions. Under these circumstances, even Barack Obama would be very lucky to win the 12% vote share that Afrobarometer and Synovate gave Dr. Kizza Besigye.
So clearly, Afrobarometer and Synovate must have been aware that even a monkey would easily win the coming presidential election with 66% if it was in control of the army, police, the civil service, state intelligence services, the Central Bank, and the Electoral Commission. I challenge anyone to show in these pages why my monkey presidential candidate would fail to win.
sam.akaki@hotmail.com
Mr. Sam Akaki is FDC’s International Envoy to the UK & EU
