The next people revolt ‘Bus Stop’ will be Kampala
By Dr. Vincent Magombe
31st January 2011
President Yoweri Museveni has mused that the mass anti-government uprisings, like those in Tunisia and Egypt, or the type of political stalemate engulfing Ivory Coast, cannot occur in Uganda. According to the former guerrilla fighter, Uganda is a “nation of freedom fighters” and that kind of nonsense cannot be allowed to take place on the streets of Kampala.
Such an argument, especially coming from a man who led a rebellion against a sitting government, simply defies logic. Firstly, Uganda has seen a fair amount of its own ‘people revolts’. Museveni himself, as a self-proclaimed freedom fighter, of all people, really doesn’t need reminding.
For example, there was the war against Idi Amin and Museveni’s own war against the Obote government. All these wars, whether launched rightly or wrongly, showed that anti-government activity can occur in Uganda. Crucially however, it showed that such wars can succeed in overthrowing sitting governments.
Lessons from the Buganda uprising of September 2009
The failure of the Buganda uprising of September 2009 to bring down the NRM regime must not fool Museveni. In the first place, bringing down the NRM regime was not the core objective of the uprising. The youths who went out on the streets of Kampala had a different cause – to secure their King and Kingdom from the sustained attack and harassment by Museveni’s government.
For several days, the capital city was brought to a standstill. And in spite of the killing of dozens of protestors by Museveni’s security operatives, the people of Buganda were able to embolden their awareness of the ability of simple citizens to stand up for a common cause.
What the 2009 Buganda uprising teaches us is that it is possible for Ugandans to rise up against the NRM regime of President Museveni. The only thing that was lacking in September 2009 was active engagement from other Ugandans in the important cause for which the Baganda youth sacrificed their lives.
There was also the missing link of the ‘international community’ – the UN, the US, the UK, Europe, etc who did not openly support the Baganda in their time of need like they did in Tunisia and are doing in Egypt and Ivory Coast.
Since September 2009, a lot has changed in Uganda. By all indications, the cause for which the Baganda were fighting has now been integrated into the wider Ugandan national cause of ‘liberating the country’ from the claws of the Museveni dictatorship. There is a country-wide realisation that the Kampala regime is the main cause of most of the country’s woes, including those faced by Buganda.
During the on-going election campaigns, all the different opposition parties and groupings are closely working with Buganda Kingdom loyalists for causes that are in the national interest, including the future establishment a Federal system of governance for the whole country.
This means that when [not if] the next People’s Uprising in Uganda comes it will be a national revolt that will involve all the people of Uganda. It will aim to resolve crucial national issues such as the lack of democracy, the entrenched corruption of the regime, the imposition of the Museveni family dynasty over the whole country, etc.
Why does Museveni oppose UN action against Gbagbo?
The Ugandan President has gone to great lengths to subvert the impending African military intervention in Ivory Coast. The question is: Why is Museveni afraid of what is going on in Ivory Coast? The answer is very simple in my view.
Museveni, as a former rebel leader, knows that once ECOWAS [Economic Community of West African States] the Africa Union, and the United Nations manage to depose Gbagbo, [militarily or otherwise] the obdurate former Ivorian President, then the next liberation “Bus Stop” will, in all likelihood, be Kampala.
The reason why ECOWAS and the other international organisations like the AU and UN are determined to get rid of Mr. Laurent Gbabo is because he out-rightly refused to concede defeat; even after the UN appointed Electoral Commission declared opposition leader Alassane Ouattara the winner.
I am convinced that in his mind, President Museveni believes that by refusing to appoint an unbiased and independent Electoral Commission, he has dealt with this ‘little’ problem of how and in whose favour the 2011 presidential election results will be declared. So he is confident that unlike in Ivory Coast, Uganda’s Electoral Commission will declare him the winner of the presidential contest whether or not he actually wins.
I must tell President Museveni that his plans and expectations are fundamentally defective. But that will be for next week. Join me then. END. Please log into www.ugandacorrespondent.com every Monday to read our top stories and anytime mid-week for our news updates.
Dr. Magombe is a UK-based Ugandan Journalist and Director of Africa Inform International
