Besigye is miles ahead of Museveni in online polls
By John Stephen Katende
14th Feb 2011
File Photo: Is he miles ahead in online polls?
Online opinion polls on three big newspaper websites, namely, www.newvision.co.ug, www.monitor.co.ug, and www.independent.ug about who is likely to win the presidential contest this Friday 18th have put IPC presidential candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye miles ahead of incumbent President and NRM party flag bearer Yoweri Museveni.
As of Sunday 13th February 2011 at about 18:00hrs East African Standard Time, a mere four days to the general election, The New Vision newspaper’s own online poll which asked “Who is likely to be Uganda’s next President?”, had opposition leader Dr. Kizza Besigye in a commanding lead with 44% of the 2,630 cast so far.
Trailing in second place with 39% was incumbent President and NRM presidential flag bearer Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, DP’s Norbert Mao comes in 3rd with 7% of the vote, UPC’s Olara Otunnu takes 4%, UFA’s Beti Kamya 3%, PDP’s Abed Bwanika takes 1%, PPP’s Bidandi Ssali also takes 1%, and Sam Lubega [Independent candidate] takes 1% too.
The Daily Monitor newspaper also asked its readers a question similar to The New Vision’s question. It asked: “Who will be Uganda’s next President?”. Here, 348 respondents thought Dr. Kizza Besigye will be Uganda’s next President. Following Dr. Besigye as a second preference is incumbent President Yoweri Museveni who attracted 162 votes; less than half of what Dr. Besigye attracted.
DP’s Norbert Mao comes in 3rd place with 126 votes; UFA’s Beti Kamya takes 4th spot with 45 votes; UPC’s Olara Otunnu comes in 5th with 43 votes; Sam Lubega [Independent candidate] takes the 6th spot with 13 votes; while Abed Bwanika and Bidandi Ssali are tied at 12 votes each.
The Independent’s poll on the presidential race also serves up similar results with Dr. Kizza Besigye in the lead. All these polls contradict the findings of the controversial Afrobarometer polls which gave incumbent President Yoweri Museveni a 65%-66% lead over his opponents. So the big question is: How can there be such huge disparities in public opinion findings?
Uganda Correspondent sought the views of the two main political camps. The IPC’s Director of Communication & Publicity M/s Margaret Wokuri said, “…as IPC, we have maintained that we have respect for the professionals who do these polls but we have also repeatedly said that the responses to the pollsters are determined by either fear or strategy. Fear in the sense that most people, especially voters, often think that pollsters are government agents seeking to ascertain who is an NRM supporter and who isn’t. So most people who fear reprisals end up identifying with the ruling NRM”, Wokuri said.
In IPC’s view, Ugandan’s are merely being ‘strategic’ in their responses to pollsters. “…Ugandans have learnt that in order to benefit from the few government programmes like NAADs, they must appear to be affiliated to the ruling party. It is common sense that people give strategic responses in order to get government freebies if and when they come”, she said.
She also urged Ugandans to remember what she called “the famous Mbabazi yellow book” which came out with “a mythical” 9million NRM supporters. The IPC lady also suggested that thousands of FDC supporters may have signed Mbabazi’s yellow book simply to mislead the NRM into thinking it had 9million supporters.
On the controversial Afrobarometer polls, M/s Wokuri casts doubt over its very existence. “…By the way, that assumes that the [Afrobarometer] polls were indeed carried out. That is still very debatable. The real poll is on 18th Feb and we hope the NRM is ready to hand over power”, Wokuri said optimistically.
On the other hand, NRM Spokesman Mr. Ofwono Opondo told Uganda Correspondent that, “…NRM has no view, and in fact has not seen your so-called “all” online opinion polls that put Kizza Besigye ahead of Yoweri Museveni. Uganda Correspondent can publish what it wants on the presidential elections. Its wishes are like that of beggars who would ride horses”, Mr. Opondo charged.
He added that, “…February 18th 2011 is only five days and you at the Uganda Correspondent will be put to serious shame. Temu saka byaff, after all the editors concoct their own imaginations, print them as credible stories”, Mr. Ofwono Opondo said.
Responding to Ofwono Opondo’s allegation of bias, Uganda Correspondent’s Editor Timothy Nsubuga said: “…Mr. Opondo’s outburst is very regrettable. We are mere messengers and we do not back any candidate in this election”, Nsubuga emphasised. END. Please log into www.ugandacorrespondent.com every Monday to read our top stories and anytime mid-week for our news updates.
