By Bernard Ddumba

8^th Nov 2010

The 2001 elections were openly violent.  The 2006 elections were violent too.  Many innocent lives were lost.  As a Ugandan, I got used to, and in fact, come to expect Museveni’s usual violence during elections.  Why is it then, I wonder, have these election campaigns [so far] served up an unusual atmosphere of civil tranquillity?

Could it be that the violent NRM has finally transformed itself into a civilised modern party that understands and respects democratic “fair play”?  I think not!  On the contrary, I find this sudden downpour of peace and tranquillity, especially at election time, quite unsettling.

And I am not alone.  Uganda Correspondent reported last week that the British government said it still “…retains concerns about the evenness of the playing field between government and opposition”.

Something tells me that Museveni’s camp has come up with a rigging avenue through which no open violence will be seen.  I think that is precisely why they are reluctant to re-ignite the violence of the previous elections that so grievously injured Museveni’s image.  So this time round, it is likely to be a case of rigging “smartly” and not through intimidation and open ballot box stuffing.

That is why I am convinced [almost know in fact] that Museveni will rig very “smartly” and massively through the Electoral Commission’s new electronic voters’ register.  With such a “smart” rigging avenue, the opposition may find it impossible to lay their hands on any evidence that they can use to challenge Museveni’s fraudulent victory.

In fact, the political grapevine among Ugandans here in Boston-USA has it that Museveni’s most controversial son-in-law [your guess is as good as mine] has already been asked by a key member of Museveni’s 2011 task force to use his skills and contacts within the Ugandan IT community to “tweak” the voters’ register and “peacefully” deliver victory to his father-in-law.

Whether it’s true or not, whether he accepts the evil undertaking or not, one thing is for sure:  The message for all opposition parties is simple and it says:  “Forget winning the 2011 elections.  Simply force Museveni out of power if you want to save Uganda”.

Kiggundu’s disgraceful Electoral Commission has already decided to appeal against Kampala Central MP Erias Lukwago’s High Court victory against it over suspect polling stations.

Lukwago had argued in his petition that the existence of polling stations in army establishments create avenues for massive rigging. In agreeing with Lukwago, Justice Bamwine said “…as long as the polling stations are not shifted from one parish to another, the EC’s argument that voters will be made to walk long distances is cheap and untenable”.

Lukwago also argued that polling stations in his constituency were increased from 112 to 141 but he doesn’t know the location of the new polling stations.  Can you imagine that?  That a candidate in an election doesn’t even know where some of the polling stations in his constituency are located!

I am convinced that it will be from these “ghost” polling stations that the results will be manipulated electronically to give Museveni a fraudulent victory.  That is also why the EC, perhaps acting under orders “from above”, decided to appeal against Lukwago’s victory so that they retain those rigging “safe houses”.

And not only that!  During the first voters’ register display exercise, millions of “ghost voters” were discovered on the register.  Realising that it had been caught “red-handed”, Kiggundu’s EC came up with a bogus excuse and said it had “…deliberately planted the ghosts on the register to see if people would spot them”.

The EC then said it would clean up the register before displaying the final one.  Today, barely 100 days to the election, the cleaned voters’ register has not been displayed despite the fact that the High Court ordered it to re-conduct the voter-register display exercise. So how will people who have lost all trust in Kiggundu’s EC believe that the “deliberately” planted ghosts have been removed from the register?

Secondly, the EC has also refused to issue voting cards to voters.  Without a new register displayed for public verification, and without voting cards to identify genuine voters, Museveni’s EC now has a clean sheet on which to write any percentage of votes Museveni wants.  That is why Ofwono Opondo, a member of Museveni’s 2011 election strategy team, has already declared that Museveni will win by more than 51%.

Love Besigye or loathe him!  But one thing you can never take away from him is political foresight.  Having exposed Museveni’s violence and crude ballot box stuffing, Besigye knew that it was likely that Museveni would do it more “smartly” in 2011.

That is partly the reason he declared that he will never take his grievances to the Supreme Court again.  END. Please log into www.ugandacorrespondent.com every Monday to read our top stories and anytime mid-week for our news updates.

bmddumba@yahoo.com