With this EC, Museveni will remain president
5th–11th July 2010
By Abbey Semuwemba
We should not get over excited over the joining of politics by former Mengo ministers till we see some changes in the Badru Kiggundu Electoral Commission [EC]. The NRM will still win big in Buganda and other parts of the country in 2011 as long as the EC remains as it is. For the same reason, I believe that the NRM will still have a majority in the next parliament and Museveni will remain president after the 2011 elections.
Several people will be forced to stand on the NRM ticket in Buganda because this is the only way they can go to parliament despite the fact that they don’t like NRM. All those in the IPC, DP, and PPP know it and that is why they are putting their bodies on the line daily to get some reforms in the EC. Unfortunately, the state has unleashed the police and the army on them to ensure that the status quo remains.
I really feel for those IPC women like FDC’s Ingrid Turinawe who are harassed by the police every time they try to demonstrate against the EC. I fear that they will eventually give up because of pressure from their husbands or partners. Ingrid, for example, is a mother and wife and I don’t think her husband is happy to see his wife being humiliated by the police daily. Nobody wants that.
A friend of mine once told me that Nambooze won [in Mukono North] because they [NRM] let her win but it will not be the same in 2011. Actually, I watched Ofwono Opondo on NTV-YouTube after the Mukono North elections saying almost the same thing. It’s going to be difficult for the opposition to protect their votes in 2011. That is a given. Mao, for example, is likely to campaign against all the DP candidates who have said they will work with the IPC. Nambooze falls in that category.
When the Kabaka asked people to go and register to vote, it raised a lot of eyebrows in the NRM camp. It seemed like it was the beginning of Mengo’s involvement in the 2011 elections. The crossing of the former Katikiros to the IPC and the formation of the Ssuubi organisation was just the icing on the cake.
The most important thing is for the opposition to combine their forces before 2011. The IPC must think of new ways to counter the NRM’s rigging machinery. Lastly, there is nothing like a “no go area” for any political party in Uganda. FDC was created in 2004 but it’s now the largest political party after NRM. DP will remain strong in Buganda for as long as there are few Baganda in FDC. The simple reason is that some people still see FDC as a party for westerners; and yet it really isn’t.
The NRM is also viewed in the same light but because they are in power, they are able to attract a lot of “nfunilamu wa” [selfish and greedy Ugandans] into their party. If the NRM loses power, that will be the end of it. It has made a lot mistakes that if anybody were to write a book about its election rigging, corruption, murders, tribalism and nepotism, it would sell like a hot cakes.
I also think we are likely to see many FDC candidates in Buganda because it has now established itself as a national party with structures in almost all parts of the country. But most importantly, they have now got money to sponsor all their candidates; assuming Dr Besigye’s announcements to that effect were serious.
Finally, I think Ugandans don’t elect people on the basis of their parties but on their personalities, tribes, qualifications, and religion. For example, Ssemujju Nganda will stand in Kyandondo on the FDC ticket but people will only vote for him as Ssemujju Nganda; not because of his affiliation with FDC. This will be the same for every candidate who intends to stand as MP anywhere in the country. Multi party politics has not yet sank into Ugandans but we shall eventually get there. If FDC can source out strong Baganda candidates to stand in Buganda, then they will do fine in Buganda.
